Erstellt am 27 May 2022 13:14
Zuletzt geändert: 28 Feb 2023 14:08
Literatur
- Eden JS, Sikazwe C, Xie R, Deng YM, Sullivan SG, Michie A, Levy A, Cutmore E, Blyth CC, Britton PN, Crawford N, Dong X, Dwyer DE, Edwards KM, Horsburgh BA, Foley D, Kennedy K, Minney-Smith C, Speers D, Tulloch RL, Holmes EC, Dhanasekaran V, Smith DW, Kok J, Barr IG; Australian RSV study group. Off-season RSV epidemics in Australia after easing of COVID-19 restrictions. Nat Commun. 2022 May 24;13(1):2884. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-30485-3. PMID: 35610217.
Abstract
Human respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is an important cause of acute respiratory infection with the most severe disease in the young and elderly. Non-pharmaceutical interventions and travel restrictions for controlling COVID-19 have impacted the circulation of most respiratory viruses including RSV globally, particularly in Australia, where during 2020 the normal winter epidemics were notably absent. However, in late 2020, unprecedented widespread RSV outbreaks occurred, beginning in spring, and extending into summer across two widely separated regions of the Australian continent, New South Wales (NSW) and Australian Capital Territory (ACT) in the east, and Western Australia. Through genomic sequencing we reveal a major reduction in RSV genetic diversity following COVID-19 emergence with two genetically distinct RSV-A clades circulating cryptically, likely localised for several months prior to an epidemic surge in cases upon relaxation of COVID-19 control measures. The NSW/ACT clade subsequently spread to the neighbouring state of Victoria and to cause extensive outbreaks and hospitalisations in early 2021. These findings highlight the need for continued surveillance and sequencing of RSV and other respiratory viruses during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as mitigation measures may disrupt seasonal patterns, causing larger or more severe outbreaks.
- Suzuki A, Nishiura H. Transmission dynamics of varicella before, during and after the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan: a modelling study. Math Biosci Eng. 2022 Apr 11;19(6):5998-6012. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2022280. PMID: 35603388.
Autoren: Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
Abstract
Public health and social measures (PHSMs) targeting the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic have potentially affected the epidemiological dynamics of endemic infectious diseases. In this study, we investigated the impact of PHSMs for COVID-19, with a particular focus on varicella dynamics in Japan. We adopted the susceptible-infectious-recovered type of mathematical model to reconstruct the epidemiological dynamics of varicella from Jan. 2010 to Sep. 2021. We analyzed epidemiological and demographic data and estimated the within-year and multi-year component of the force of infection and the biases associated with reporting and ascertainment in three periods: pre-vaccination (Jan. 2010-Dec. 2014), pre-pandemic vaccination (Jan. 2015-Mar. 2020) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (Apr. 2020-Sep. 2021). By using the estimated parameter values, we reconstructed and predicted the varicella dynamics from 2010 to 2027. Although the varicella incidence dropped drastically during the COVID-19 pandemic, the change in susceptible dynamics was minimal; the number of susceptible individuals was almost stable. Our prediction showed that the risk of a major outbreak in the post-pandemic era may be relatively small. However, uncertainties, including age-related susceptibility and travel-related cases, exist and careful monitoring would be required to prepare for future varicella outbreaks.
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* Zitat nach: Bach, Otto: ''Über die Subjektabhängigkeit des Bildes von der Wirklichkeit im psychiatrischen Diagnostizieren und Therapieren''. In: Psychiatrie heute, Aspekte und Perspektiven, Festschrift für Rainer Tölle, Urban & Schwarzenberg, München 1994, ISBN 3-541-17181-2, (Zitat: Seite 1)
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